Xavier Becerra Leads Steve Hilton by Double Digits in California Governor Race, New Poll Shows

Democrat Xavier Becerra is holding a substantial lead over Republican Steve Hilton ahead of California’s November 3 gubernatorial election, according to recent polls. The latest ActiVote survey puts Becerra ahead by 25.6 percentage points, as the candidates compete over housing affordability, taxes, homelessness and the cost of energy.

The race to replace California Governor Gavin Newsom is drawing increasing attention as the final weeks of campaigning approach. Recent surveys suggest that Becerra has established a significant advantage over Hilton, although the size of that lead varies between pollsters.

An ActiVote poll released October 16 found Becerra receiving 62.8% support among likely voters, compared with 37.2% for Hilton. The survey included 400 likely midterm voters and reported a margin of error of approximately 4.9 percentage points.

The figures provide a snapshot of voter preferences ahead of Election Day, but they do not determine the eventual outcome. Turnout, late campaign developments and voters who have not yet made up their minds can all influence the final result.

Recent Polls Show Becerra With a Significant Advantage

The latest ActiVote survey is not the only poll showing Becerra ahead. Other surveys have also found the Democratic candidate leading Hilton, although the margins differ.

A September Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll found Becerra leading Hilton by 58% to 33%, a 25-point advantage. Another survey, conducted by IVC Media, showed a closer contest, with Becerra at 48% and Hilton at 38%.

The different results illustrate why individual polls should be considered alongside other surveys rather than treated as definitive predictions.

Here is a comparison of the reported results:

These surveys differ in their methodology, sample sizes and field dates. Nevertheless, each of the three listed polls places Becerra ahead of Hilton. <Cite refs={[“turn250726search0″,”turn250726search11″,”turn250726search6”]}/>

Who Is Xavier Becerra?

Xavier Becerra is a Democrat with extensive experience in state and federal government.

He previously served as California’s attorney general and later became U.S. secretary of health and human services under President Joe Biden. His background in government and healthcare policy has helped shape his campaign message.

Becerra has emphasized healthcare access, housing assistance and opposition to policies pursued by President Donald Trump. His campaign is seeking to appeal to voters concerned about the cost of living and the direction of federal and state policy.

California’s high housing costs and broader affordability challenges remain central issues for voters, placing pressure on candidates to explain how they would address the state’s economic concerns.

Steve Hilton Focuses on Taxes and Affordability

Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, is campaigning on a different set of priorities.

Hilton has emphasized tax cuts and economic changes that he argues would help Californians manage the high cost of living. He has also received an endorsement from President Donald Trump, making the race part of the broader national political debate.

His campaign faces the challenge of attracting enough support in a state where Democrats have a substantial statewide registration advantage.

To narrow the polling gap, Hilton will need to persuade voters that his proposals on taxes, housing and the economy offer a compelling alternative to Becerra’s plans.

The campaign’s remaining weeks provide an opportunity for both candidates to communicate their priorities and respond to voters’ concerns.

Housing Costs, Homelessness and Energy Bills Remain Major Issues

Beyond the candidates themselves, the election is likely to be shaped by practical concerns affecting households throughout California.

Housing affordability is one of the most prominent challenges. High rents and home prices have made it difficult for many residents to find affordable places to live, while homelessness continues to be a major public policy issue.

Energy costs and taxes are also important subjects in the campaign.

Hilton has promoted broad tax reductions, while Becerra has emphasized healthcare access and housing support. Their contrasting approaches give voters different proposals to consider as they decide which candidate is best positioned to address the state’s challenges.

The outcome could influence the direction of California policy on housing, public spending, taxes and other issues that directly affect residents.

What the Polls Mean Ahead of November 3

The polling picture currently favors Becerra, but a lead in a survey is not the same as a confirmed election victory.

The ActiVote poll surveyed 400 likely voters, meaning its findings are subject to sampling uncertainty. Other surveys have produced smaller margins, demonstrating that the reported level of support depends partly on the pollster and the methodology used.

The Cook Political Report has also assessed the California governor race as “Solid Democrat,” reflecting the broader political environment and the strength of the Democratic position in the state.

However, election ratings and polling estimates are not official results. The final outcome will be determined by the votes cast and counted in the election.

With voting underway by mail, attention will increasingly turn to turnout, campaign messaging and whether either candidate can change the dynamics of the race before Election Day.

California Voters Prepare to Make Their Choice

As November 3 approaches, Becerra enters the final stretch with a clear polling advantage over Hilton. The latest ActiVote figures show a particularly wide gap, while other surveys also place the Democrat ahead by varying margins.

For Hilton, the challenge is to close that gap by convincing voters that his economic proposals offer a better path forward. For Becerra, maintaining support and translating polling strength into votes will be crucial.

California’s next governor will inherit major challenges involving affordability, housing, homelessness and the state’s economic future.

The polls offer a snapshot of where the race stands today, but voters will have the final say on Election Day.