Maine’s 2026 Senate race has emerged as one of the most closely watched contests of the midterm elections, with Republican Sen. Susan Collins facing Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in a race that remains within a narrow polling range.

A Marist Poll released October 6 found Jackson leading Collins 51% to 47% among registered Maine voters. The survey of 1,505 registered voters was conducted October 1–4 and has a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points.

The latest result follows a CBS News/YouGov poll that found the two candidates tied at 50% each, underscoring how much the race has shifted from poll to poll. That survey had a ±4.7-point margin of error.

Collins Faces a Closely Watched Reelection

Collins, who has represented Maine in the Senate since 1997, is seeking another term in a state that has generally favored Democrats in recent presidential elections.

Jackson, a former Maine Senate president and longtime state legislator, entered the race after Democratic nominee Graham Platner withdrew. Jackson was selected as the party’s replacement nominee in July.

The contest has since become increasingly competitive, attracting national attention because of Collins’ long record of winning statewide elections and the possibility of Democrats gaining a Republican-held Senate seat.

Polls Show a Narrow Contest

Recent polling provides a mixed picture rather than a consistent advantage for either candidate.

The collection of recent surveys shows a race with relatively small differences between the candidates. A seven-poll average compiled by 270toWin had Jackson at 49.1% and Collins at 47.6%.

Polls measure voter preferences at the time they are conducted and can differ because of sampling, methodology, turnout assumptions and other factors.

Independent Voters Could Matter

Maine’s independent voters are an important part of the contest.

The latest Marist survey found Jackson receiving 52% support among independents, compared with 45% for Collins.

Collins has historically relied on support from voters outside the Republican base, while Jackson is attempting to build a coalition broad enough to compete statewide.

The candidates faced each other in their first televised debate on October 6, with additional debates scheduled before Election Day. Their discussions focused on issues including President Donald Trump, high prices and allegations of political corruption.

Collins Emphasizes Her Independence

A central theme of Collins’ campaign has been her record of breaking with members of her own party, particularly Trump.

At the October 6 debate, Collins emphasized votes in which she opposed Trump, including her opposition to tariffs, certain immigration policies and U.S. involvement in the Iran war. She also highlighted her vote to convict Trump following the January 6 Capitol attack.

Jackson has focused heavily on Collins’ relationship with the Republican Party and her record on issues including Supreme Court appointments and Trump’s legislative agenda.

Cook Rates Maine as a Toss-Up

The Cook Political Report currently includes Maine among its Senate Toss-Up races, placing the contest in the category of races where neither party has an established advantage in its current assessment. Cook has described the Maine race as one in which both campaigns see different paths through independent voters and the state’s political landscape.

The race is particularly important because Democrats are seeking the net Senate gains needed to compete for control of the chamber, while Republicans are defending several seats in states where recent polling has become more competitive.

Election Day Is Approaching

Maine voters will choose between Collins and Jackson on November 3.

The latest polling does not determine the outcome, but it does show why the race has become a major focus of the 2026 Senate battle. Jackson leads in the newest Marist survey, while CBS/YouGov and other recent polls have shown either a tie or only a small difference.

With the candidates entering the final weeks of campaigning, Maine remains one of the Senate races to watch as voters decide who will represent the state for the next six years.